Independent Overtakes Republican Senator in Red State: New Poll

Independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn has overtaken Republican incumbent Deb Fischer in red-leaning Nebraska, according to a recent poll.
The poll was conducted by SurveyUSA between September 20 and September 23. It surveyed 558 likely voters with 44 per cent supporting Fischer and 45 percent supporting Osborn, meaning his lead fell within the +/-4.8 percent margin of error.
Still, the result is significant for an independent candidate in a state which is one of the Republican Party’s strongholds.
In 2020, Republican Ben Sasse won Nebraska’s Senate seat by 40 points, winning every county, while Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over President Joe Biden, winning 91 out of 93 counties.
The Democratic Party is not running a candidate in the state’s Senate race.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks SurveyUSA as the 15th most reliable pollster on its leaderboard of 277 firms based on its historical track record and transparent methodology, giving it a rating of 2.8 stars out of three.
It is the second time Osborn, a mechanic, military veteran and union leader, has led a poll over Fischer, who has held her seat since 2012. In November, he led a Change Research poll 40 percent to 38 percent, but Fischer has led in all other surveys.
As a union leader, Osborn led a successful strike against Kellogg’s in 2021, which ended after 11 weeks when workers ratified a labor contract that would provide raises and increased benefits.
Newsweek has contacted the campaigns of Osborn and Fischer via email for comment outside business hours.
On Tuesday, Osborn released an advert on X, formerly Twitter, casting Fischer as a senator paid for by large corporations.
“The U.S. Senate is a bunch of millionaires controlled by billionaires. My opponent, Deb Fisher, is part of the problem,” he said. “She’s taking so much corporate cash, she should wear patches like NASCAR. She’s gotten 10 times richer in the Senate. She hasn’t held a public town hall since 2017.”
The race has the potential to be nationally significant in determining which party controls the Senate. Currently, Democrats (and the four Democrat-leaning independent senators) have a 51-49 majority, but the Republican Party is slightly favored to retake control.
Of the 34 seats up for election in November, Democrats are expected to lose a net of two seats, with Republican challenger Tim Sheehy the favorite to win Montana over Democrat incumbent Jon Tester, and Jim Justice the favorite to fill the seat of conservative Democrat-turned-Independent Senator Joe Manchin, who is not seeking reelection.
Polls do not currently suggest that Democrats are likely to flip any Republican seats.
If current results reflect what happens in November’s election, then the Democrats will have 48 seats, and the Republicans will have 50 seats. The last seat, Nebraska, could either be retained by Fischer, giving the GOP a 51-seat majority, or it could go to Osborn.
If Osborn wins Nebraska, Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House, and Tim Walz is vice president, able to cast a Democrat tie-breaking vote in the senate, Osborne would be able to prevent a Republican senate majority or allow the GOP to have a majority depending on which party he chooses to vote with on specific legislation.